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ETHUSD short — 2 Oct 2026 (hit target)

This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,684.1 and hit its target at 2,656.4 after 1.3 hours, closing at +1.03%.

AssetETHUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-10-02 17:20
Entry2,684.1
Stop-loss2,721.5
Take-profit 12,656.4
Take-profit 2 (stretch)2,638
Reward:risk at entry1.23
Outcomehit its target
Close price2,656.4
Realized P&L+1.03%
Time open1.3 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment only 0/4 (mixed), 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned but 5m bear and 15m mixed; 1h ADX 26.6 but slope -5.6 (fading), ADX-20 19.5, ER-30 0.08, choppiness 45.7, Hurst 0.21 (strongly mean-reverting), HMM calm — a decaying bull-labeled tape with a fresh downside impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — recent 4h net move -2.15%, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.23, oi_15m_z -1.46, agg_oi -0.80%), taker 1h 0.85 sell-heavy, funding negative/unwinding; higher-TF EMA is the only bull counter. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster is clean short — OI bleeding on the way down (longs exiting, not shorts covering into strength), taker ratio sub-1 and last 3 hourly buckets all <0.86, delta funding negative — momentum is down near the 5d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price reclaiming ~2715 (the 1h EMA shelf) with top-traders already net-long 1.55 would flip this into a bull continuation and stop me. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2684.08; stop above the invalidation shelf at 2721.5 (~1.39% / within atr context); target the 5d-low retest zone at 2638 (~1.73% / RR ~1.23, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting Hurst and bull higher-TF cap the downside follow-through, so meaningful expire odds.

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