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SOLUSD short — 2 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 119.6425 and hit its target at 118.057 after 1.1 hours, closing at +1.33%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 17:50 |
| Entry | 119.6425 |
| Stop-loss | 121.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 118.057 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 117 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 118.057 |
| Realized P&L | +1.33% |
| Time open | 1.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 alignment (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 25.7 but slope -4.6 (fading), ER10 0.46 / ER30 0.10 / choppiness 52.5 (noisy, nets nowhere), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0, F&G 72 Greed — chop with HTF bull structure but fresh near-term bear impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: conflicting — net -2.03%/4h, -1.91%/12h bearish momentum and OI accelerating_down (-3.75% recent half) vs top_trader_pos_ratio 2.49 heavily long and 4h HTF bull stack; the fresh momentum and OI unwind tilt SHORT modestly against an eroding bull. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: SHORT lean — net move negative across 4h/12h, oi_momentum_state accelerating_down with OI z slightly negative (longs bleeding out), funding positive+rising (crowded long paying, vulnerable to flush), price -3.2% off 5d high rejecting. 4. PRE-MORTEM: reclaim of ~121.5 (back above 1h EMA stack / 5d-high area) with taker ratio pushing >1.2 would reassert the dominant HTF bull and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 119.64; stop above the 1h bull-structure reclaim at 121.95 (~1.93% / ~1x atr-scaled); stretch target down to 117.00 near 5d-low support zone (~2.21%, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh bearish momentum + OI unwind favor the short modestly, but mean-reverting Hurst and 65.7% long-biased track record raise reversal/expire odds.
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