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ETHUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,416.3 and hit its target at 2,366 after 5.6 hours, closing at +2.08%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 20:50 |
| Entry | 2,416.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,458.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,386.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,366 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,366 |
| Realized P&L | +2.08% |
| Time open | 5.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf full_bearish 4/4, 1h ADX 28.1 slope +5.2 (strengthening), choppiness 38.5 (borderline-trending), ER-10 0.71 (clean one-way down), Hurst 0.44 random-walk, HMM calm hi-conf; price z -1.63, net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-1.27%/-3.50%/-3.70%), at 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — all four TFs bear-aligned, momentum negative, agg OI bleeding -0.22% but Binance OI accelerating_up slightly, taker mixed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the full_bearish MTF stack with strengthening ADX and clean ER-10 (0.71) plus price pinned at 90d lows is the dominant cluster; funding negative (z -1.0, agg -1.05) shows no crowded-long trap, so trend can extend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 27.6 oversold and top-trader pos ratio 1.57 long-tilted plus taker_1h 1.05 buy-side — an oversold bounce reclaiming ~2460 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2416.35; stop above the recent swing/reclaim zone at 2458.5 (~1.74% = ~0.4x ATR 4h stack, reasonable vs rv); stretch target 2366.0 (~2.08% down, R:R ~1.2) at the next structural leg below the 90d low, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.84% and elevated RV. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold risks a bounce.
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