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ETHUSD short — 15 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,357.2 and stopped out at 2,398 after 53 minutes, closing at -1.73%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-15 14:05 |
| Entry | 2,357.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,398 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,325.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,305 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,398 |
| Realized P&L | -1.73% |
| Time open | 53 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf full_bearish 4/4, 1h ADX 50.6 slope +3.0 (strong & strengthening), choppiness 49.5 (borderline), ER-30 0.42 net-down, Hurst 0.46, HMM calm hi-conf; price z -2.20, net moves negative 4h/12h/24h (-0.49%/-1.02%/-3.22%), sitting right at 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — all four TFs bear-aligned, momentum negative, OI bleeding, taker sell-heavy; the one caveat is 4h RSI 28.9 oversold. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — strongest cluster is HTF trend (4/4 bear, ADX 50 strengthening) plus flow (oi_change_24h -22%, agg_oi -5.8%, accelerating_down, taker 1h 0.95 sell-tilted) — a textbook bleeding downtrend near lows. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI oversold (28.9) + z -2.2 + top-trader pos ratio 1.47 long could spark a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming the 5d-low shelf. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2357.15; stop above the recent minor swing/shelf at 2398 (~1.73%, within 1h atr 1.06% × and 4h atr 1.81% range for 24h); stretch target 2305 (~2.22%, R:R ~1.28) at the next structural leg given it just broke to new lows and 24h traversal avg is 2.08%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned with oversold risk of a bounce — p_tp1 47, p_sl 34, p_expire 19.
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