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AAVEUSD short — 15 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 150.23 and stopped out at 154.1 after 58 minutes, closing at -2.58%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-15 14:05 |
| Entry | 150.23 |
| Stop-loss | 154.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 147.392 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 145.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 154.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.58% |
| Time open | 58 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm bear trend — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 40.6 rising (slope +2.66), choppiness 55.2 (neutral-leaning), ER-10 0.23 / ER-30 0.31 (noisy near-term), Hurst 0.46 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm 0.9999; price -4.19% 24h, z -2.08, sitting +1.58% off 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: Short lean carries the HTF trend, but several counter signals muddy it — OI accelerating_down (-21% recent half) signals position unwind not fresh selling, taker 1.33 buy-heavy on the latest bar, top-trader pos ratio 1.86 heavily long, agg funding deeply negative z -0.95, and price washed-out at z -2.08 above lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Short remains trend-aligned — strong 1h ADX 40.6 rising with bear EMA stack on 3 of 4 TFs and clean 24h downtrend; this asset's track record and same-regime history favor shorts (3 recent short wins). 4. PRE-MORTEM: A reclaim of the 5d-low shelf with the washed-out z-score and heavy long positioning producing a bounce — if net 4h momentum (already +0.67%) extends through resistance, the short invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 150.23; stop above the recent swing / reclaim zone at 154.10 (~2.58%, ~0.5x the elevated 24h RV); target the next structural leg toward the lows at 145.50 (~3.15%, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but washed-out and OI unwinding, so moderate conviction with real bounce risk.
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