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ETHUSD short — 22 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,376.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,406.2 with a price move of -1.26%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-22 17:09 |
| Entry | 2,376.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,418 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,347.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,328 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,406.2 |
| Realized P&L | -1.26% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear-leaning transitional — 4h/15m/5m EMA bear_aligned (only 1h mixed, RSI 25 oversold), 1h ADX 36.9 slope +2.8 (trend strengthening), choppiness 36.4 (trending), ER-10 0.67 clean recent downside but ER-30 0.38 / Hurst 0.48 (longer path mean-reverts), HMM calm hi-conf; fresh momentum strongly negative all horizons (-1.39%/4h, -2.53%/12h, -5.48%/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — fresh accelerating downside, bear EMA stack on 3 of 4 TFs, OI falling into the drop (deleveraging), taker 0.85 (sell-skewed). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the dominant cluster is fresh one-way momentum (ER-10 0.67, net -5.48%/24h) with 4h/15m/5m bear EMA and taker 0.85 confirming distribution; agg_oi -3.8% as price falls = longs unwinding not fresh shorts covering. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 25 oversold + top_trader_pos_ratio 1.63 (longs loaded) + price at -5.48% near 5d/20d low (+1.67% above) risks an oversold reclaim bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2376.25, stop above the 1h reclaim pivot at 2418.0 (dist ~1.76%, within 24h RV); target the recent low extension at 2328.0 (dist ~2.03%, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold risk + mean-reverting Hurst cap the edge; momentum favors continuation.
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