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ETHUSD short — 26 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,302.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,312.4 with a price move of -0.42%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-26 03:57 |
| Entry | 2,302.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,348.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,274.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,255.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,312.4 |
| Realized P&L | -0.42% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment 4/4 full_bearish (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear EMA), 1h ADX 29.4 slope +4.7 (trend firming), choppiness 47.9 (mid), ER-10 0.74 clean recent push but ER-30 0.18 and Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting on longer path, HMM calm hi-conf; price sits at z-score -2.37 and pinned at 5d/20d/90d low (+0.000% off low). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — full bearish stack, negative momentum all horizons (-1.11%/4h, -1.72%/12h, -2.48%/24h), accelerating_down OI momentum. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend fully aligned bearish with firming ADX and fresh downside momentum; OI momentum accelerating_down with price making new lows confirms sellers in control — this regime has won repeatedly on this asset recently. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is at the 90d low with z-score -2.37 (deeply oversold) — a reclaim bounce off the low with funding z elevated (0.95, longs still paying) could squeeze shorts; top-trader pos ratio 1.75 (longs favored) is the one contradicting cluster. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2302.69; stop above the 2345 intraday structure / recent swing at 2348.5 (~2.0% = ~1.3x atr_pct_4h, reasonable for 35 RV); stretch target down to 2255 (~2.07% below entry), R:R ~1.03, inside clamps, a reachable level given 1.48% avg 24h traversal plus accelerating momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold at the low tempers p_tp1.
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