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ETHUSD short — 29 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,303.7 and stopped out at 2,338.5 after 12.3 hours, closing at -1.51%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-29 02:12 |
| Entry | 2,303.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,338.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,278.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,262 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,338.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.51% |
| Time open | 12.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear-leaning transitional — mtf_alignment 2/4 (4h+5m bear_aligned, 1h/15m mixed), 1h ADX 27.4 but slope -1.18 (fading), choppiness 42.5 (mid), ER-10 0.28 / ER-30 0.20 (path nets nowhere — chop), Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting, HMM calm hi-conf; price z-score -1.48, -2.3%/24h, sitting +0.03% off its 5d/20d/90d low. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean from momentum continuation (-2.39%/4h, -1.27%/12h, OI accelerating_down) but tempered — price is AT the 5d/20d low with 5m RSI 15.8 and 15m RSI 16.5 (deeply oversold), so chasing shorts into the low is poor R:R; this is genuinely two-sided but the fresh-momentum + OI-unwind cluster edges short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short-aligned — HTF 4h is bear_aligned, OI z-score -3.1 with accelerating_down momentum and agg_oi -2.62% signals longs capitulating, taker last bucket 0.68 (sellers dominant), funding still positive (longs paying, room to unwind). 4. PRE-MORTEM: the deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI (sub-17) at a multi-timeframe low invites a sharp mean-reverting bounce — a reclaim back above ~2330 would flip momentum and stop the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2303.65; stop above the recent swing / reclaim zone at 2338.5 (~1.5% — within 0.5-1.5x the 46% annualized RV / ~1.4% typical 24h traversal, a touch wide but justified by oversold bounce risk); take_profit_1 at 2262.0 (~1.8% below, R:R ~1.2) targeting a push through the 5d low into fresh lows. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-at-low shorts are coin-flip-ish with expire risk given chop — p_tp1 44, p_sl 39, p_expire 17.
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