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HYPEUSD short — 11 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on HYPEUSD entered at 79.19 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 79.53 with a price move of -0.43%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | HYPEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-11 22:57 |
| Entry | 79.19 |
| Stop-loss | 81.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77.786 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 76.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 79.53 |
| Realized P&L | -0.43% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear_aligned, 4h mixed; 1h ADX 30.4 but slope -4.3 (genuine bear trend fading), ER-10 0.40/ER-30 0.06 (near-zero net efficiency), choppiness 52, Hurst 0.48, HMM calm 0.999 — a decaying bear trend drifting into chop, sitting at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_low +0.47%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean but heavily compromised — price is stretched -2.23 rolling z below 20d mean and pinned at range lows with 5m RSI 22.6 oversold; the short-continuation edge is fading while a mean-reversion bounce risk is elevated. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: this asset's winning template here is short into the decaying bear trend — bear EMA stack on fast TFs, net_4h -1.24%, taker 1h 0.765 (sellers dominant), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.56, agg_oi -1.90) = shorts pressing into weakness with no long defense; top-trader pos ratio 1.95 long is the lone contra but that cohort has been the losing side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: at extreme lows with 5m RSI 22.6 and z -2.23, an oversold reclaim bounce back through the 15m EMAs would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 79.19, stop above the recent 4h consolidation shelf / EMA reclaim at 81.15 (~2.5% ≈ 0.85x 24h-range rv given RV pctile 99); target the 5d-low extension / measured continuation at 76.85 (~2.95%, R:R ~1.19, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: high RV and oversold stretch raise bounce and expiry odds, so keep p_sl meaningful.
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