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AAVEUSD long — 12 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 126.44 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 124.59 with a price move of -1.46%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-12 09:45 |
| Entry | 126.44 |
| Stop-loss | 123.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 128.906 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 130.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 124.59 |
| Realized P&L | -1.46% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed — 5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h mixed; 1h ADX 21.8 with mild positive slope (+0.76), ER-10 0.36 / ER-30 0.19 / choppiness 51.7 / Hurst 0.37 all flag AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — price is +3.5% on 24h with net_move_4h +0.77% / 12h +1.67% / 24h +3.23% showing sustained upside thrust, and lower-TF EMAs have flipped bull-aligned. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh momentum plus positioning — top_trader_pos_ratio 2.13 (heavily net long) and top_trader_account_ratio 1.31, OI up +2.5% / agg OI +2.86% into the move (rising OI + rising price = real longs building), and AAVE's mean-reverting chop tape has historically favored the long-into-strength side (recent same-regime longs won 3 of 5). 4. PRE-MORTEM: funding is slightly negative (funding_z -1.07, agg_funding_z -0.66) and OI momentum is decelerating — if the thrust stalls, this reverts back toward the 20d mean where z-score sits at -0.82; a break below the recent consolidation invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 126.44; stop 123.10 (below near-term structure and the 4h swing, ~2.6% risk, ~0.5-1.5x rv band); take_profit_1 130.55 (~3.25% up, R:R ~1.23, structural zone toward the 5d high which is only -6.6% away, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 2.37% and elevated RV). 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with a modest fresh lean — p_tp1 46, p_sl 37, p_expire 17.
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