PAXGUSD long — 22 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,131.4 and stopped out at 4,095 after 7.6 hours, closing at -0.88%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-22 14:26 |
| Entry | 4,131.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,095 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,155.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,172 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,095 |
| Realized P&L | -0.88% |
| Time open | 7.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bull-aligned — EMA stack bullish on 5m/15m/1h, 1h ADX 47.5 rising (+2.85 slope), gold spot +1.76% 24h; only 4h EMA mixed with RSI 71.8 overbought, macro gold up 1.06% 1d and 1.73% 5d. 2. SETUP CHECK: Trend-aligned long with confirming flow — taker ratio 1.26 (buyers), taker history turning positive last several hours, top-trader pos ratio 2.61 (heavily long) and OI momentum accelerating_up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Long — strong 1h uptrend (ADX 47, choppiness 48.8 leaning trend), buyers dominating recent taker buckets, and gold macro bid; premium ~flat (-0.17%) so no rich-token drag. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z_score +3.24 and 4h RSI 71.8 overbought at 5d/20d/90d highs — extended, so a mean-reversion pullback is the main risk; realized vol at 99th pctile also warns of a snapback. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry near mark 4131.4; stop below 4100 pivot at 4095 (~0.88%, beyond the intraday support and last-4h base); TP1 at 4172 (~0.98%, ~1.12x risk) reachable given avg_move_24h 0.64% and current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: gold moves slow and extension risk caps upside probability — modest edge with meaningful expire chance.
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