XAUTUSD long — 22 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on XAUTUSD entered at 4,131.4 and stopped out at 4,089 after 17.3 hours, closing at -1.03%.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-22 14:26 |
| Entry | 4,131.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,089 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,156.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,173 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 0.98 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,089 |
| Realized P&L | -1.03% |
| Time open | 17.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 45.7 (rising) with bull_aligned EMA stacks on 5m/15m/1h, alignment 4/4, Hurst 0.40 — a genuine bull trend in gold, confirmed by macro (spot gold +1.06% 1d, +1.73% 5d, DXY soft). 2. SETUP CHECK: trend-aligned long with confirming flow — taker_buy_sell 1.82 latest, gold_spot_24h +1.76% — a valid trade, not chop. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is macro gold strength + strong 1h/4h uptrend + fresh buy-side taker pressure (1.82) driving Delta perp; token premium slightly negative (-0.17%) so no overheated perp bid. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 71 (overbought) and z_score +3.0 vs 20d mean + price sits at 5d/20d/90d highs — extension risk; OI declining (-2.5%) means the push isn't fueled by new positioning, so a mean-revert pullback is the main threat. 5. LEVELS: entry near mark 4131.4; stop below the recent 4h consolidation shelf ~4090 (beyond the intraday invalidation, ~1.0% risk); TP1 at 4173 (~1.0%) inside the 1.0-1.5x band given avg_move_24h ~0.62% is modest — keep target realistic. 6. EXPECTATION: extended into highs with fading OI tempers p_tp1; keep meaningful expire probability given gold's low daily traversal.
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