PAXGUSD long — 31 Jul 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,050.1 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,052.1 with a price move of +0.05%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-31 12:36 |
| Entry | 4,050.1 |
| Stop-loss | 4,014 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,078.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,098 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,052.1 |
| Realized P&L | +0.05% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (0/4), 1h ema bull but 4h/15m mixed and 5m bear; ADX-1h 16.8 fading (slope -2.6), Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), choppiness 44.6 — a choppy/transitional tape, HMM calm at full confidence. 2. LEAN CHECK: gold spot -0.55% 1d and macro gold reading is actually +0.70% 1d/+1.51% 5d, net_move_4h/12h negative but 24h flat; top_trader_pos_ratio very long (3.09) and taker buy/sell 1.19 with taker history closing strong — a modest dip-buy lean into a persistently bullish macro gold backdrop favors long, consistent with this asset's chop-regime win streak. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is macro gold structurally strong (5d +1.51%, spot only mildly red today) plus crowded top-trader longs and a rebounding taker ratio (1.19, last bucket 1.63) — a shallow pullback (z -0.39, -1.27% from 5d high) inside a gold uptrend, the exact setup that repeatedly won here. 4. PRE-MORTEM: sustained gold spot follow-through lower (breaking the 5d low, macro gold rolling over below DXY 100) would invalidate the dip-buy. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4050.08; stop below the 5d-low proximity / recent swing at 4014 (~0.89%, beyond the invalidation); TP1 stretch at 4098 (~1.18%, near the 5d high at -1.27%), RR ~1.33, reachable given avg_move_24h 0.73% and p90 range 2.69%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime WR here has been favorable but base rates are ~48%; p_tp1 45, p_sl 38, p_expire 17.
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