ETHUSD short — 31 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,852.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,870 with a price move of -0.94%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-31 14:06 |
| Entry | 1,852.7 |
| Stop-loss | 1,892 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,818.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,795 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.47 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,870 |
| Realized P&L | -0.94% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (2/4) but 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned and only 4h lags bull; 1h ADX 25.7 with +2.9 slope marks a real strengthening trend, choppiness 29.6 (trending), Hurst 0.51 neutral, funding negative and unwinding (agg z -1.07) — a bear-aligned selloff. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence tilts short — net moves all down (-1.87%/4h, -2.75%/12h, -3.43%/24h), OI accelerating_down (5m z -2.2), fear_greed 25 (Extreme Fear), z-score -1.78. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the down-momentum + falling OI + unwinding funding at fresh 5d/20d lows (price at 20d low, dist -5.9% from high) — a trend-aligned short continuation; the prior winning ETH short read the identical setup for +1.45%. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (5m 20.8, 15m 24.0, 1h 21.9) at the exact 20d low with top-traders still net long (pos ratio 1.32) — a mean-reversion bounce would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1852.67; stop above the recent breakdown pivot at 1892 (beyond oversold-bounce risk); TP1 stretch at 1795 targeting continuation below the round-low, ~57.7 reward vs 39.3 risk = 1.47 R:R, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.79%. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold at lows caps downside follow-through somewhat, so bounce risk is real.
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