PAXGUSD long — 13 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,370.4 and stopped out at 4,332 after 18.6 hours, closing at -0.88%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 06:11 |
| Entry | 4,370.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,332 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,398.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,416.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,332 |
| Realized P&L | -0.88% |
| Time open | 18.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA stack bull_aligned with strong 4h ADX 43.2, but 1h ADX 21.3 with negative slope (-3.6, fading), mtf_alignment mixed (0/4 alignment now with 5m bear/oversold, 15m mixed), choppiness 43.8 neutral, ER-30 just 0.03 (path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.54 — a macro gold uptrend that has stalled into an intraday pullback/consolidation. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean intact — the higher-timeframe (4h) gold trend is still bull_aligned, macro gold +1.94% 1d / +5.23% 5d, top-trader pos ratio 1.98 (heavily long), and this is a 70% win-rate asset that consistently rewards the trend-aligned long dip-buy; but near-term momentum is negative (net -0.68% 4h, -0.77% 12h), so lower confidence. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — 4h bull structure + macro gold strength + top-trader positioning long, buying an intraday oversold dip (5m/15m RSI ~29-31) into the broader uptrend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: continued OI bleed (oi_momentum accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -0.88) plus fading 1h ADX could signal the pullback deepens through the 5d low rather than reclaiming. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below intraday structure / 5d-low zone at 4332.0 (~0.88% below, ~0.8x the 1.11% avg 24h traversal), stretch target at 4416.5 (+1.05%, R:R ~1.19) toward reclaim of recent range — inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: base-rate lean with a stalling 1h trend against a strong 4h backdrop.
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