AAVEUSD long — 13 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 89.5525 and stopped out at 88.01 after 6.9 hours, closing at -1.72%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 06:56 |
| Entry | 89.5525 |
| Stop-loss | 88.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.631 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 88.01 |
| Realized P&L | -1.72% |
| Time open | 6.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA both bear-aligned but ADX 18.3 falling (slope -2.1), choppiness 50.8, ER-30 0.07 (net nowhere), Hurst 0.41 (mild mean-revert), alignment 0/4, HMM calm — a decaying/exhausted bear tape drifting into chop, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly long on a near-term bounce — net +1.44% 4h, latest taker ratio 1.56 (buy pressure), funding negative/z -1.22 (shorts paying, unwind fuel), price sitting near 5d low (+3.3% off low). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh 4h momentum up plus a strong buy-tilted last taker hour and top-trader position ratio 1.50 long, on a mean-reverting Hurst with oversold-fast RSI already worked off — a reflex bounce off the low with the higher-TF bear trend faded (ADX slope negative). Counter-trend so I keep confidence modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI momentum is accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -0.15, agg OI -0.86%) — no fresh long OI backing the bounce, so if the 4h push fades this rolls back over to the bear side. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.55; stop below the recent swing/5d-low structure at 88.05 (~1.68%, roughly 0.5x the 3.04% 7d range — reasonable); stretch TP 91.35 (~2.01%, R:R ~1.2) into the 5d-high area which sits -3.65% overhead, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: thin single-cluster counter-trend bounce; p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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