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PAXGUSD long — 25 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,276.6 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,278.7 with a price move of +0.05%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-25 13:38 |
| Entry | 4,276.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,243 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,301.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,318 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,278.7 |
| Realized P&L | +0.05% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (1h/4h bear-aligned, 5m/15m mixed), 1h ADX 17.2 slope +0.76 (weak, near chop), choppiness 51.9 neutral, ER-10 0.14/ER-30 0.004 utterly noisy nowhere-path, Hurst 0.31 mean-reverting, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm, choppy low-vol gold tape with no genuine trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: thin long lean — rolling z-score -1.50 (price stretched well below 20d mean into mean-revert territory), sitting +0.58% off the 20d/90d low and Hurst 0.31 favors reversion; gold spot +0.20% 1d and macro (DXY -0.14%, gold +0.38%) mildly supportive. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is mean-reversion — z_score -1.50 with Hurst 0.31 in a calm HMM regime historically snaps back; XAUT correlation +0.99 confirms the gold complex, and gold spot ticked green. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h bear stack persists and net_move_4h -0.27% shows fresh downside momentum; a break below the 5d low (+0.58% away) invalidates the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4276.61, stop below 5d low structure at 4243.0 (~0.79% ≈ within rv/atr range), target the 20d mean reversion at 4318.0 (~0.97%, R:R ~1.23, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: choppy calm tape, modest reversion edge against a bear stack — p_tp1 40, p_sl 34, p_expire 26.
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