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PAXGUSD long — 16 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,179.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,162.3 with a price move of -0.41%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-16 04:05 |
| Entry | 4,179.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,147 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,203.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,219.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,162.3 |
| Realized P&L | -0.41% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Short-TF EMAs bull-aligned (5m/15m), 1h mixed, 4h bear-aligned; mtf 2/4 mixed, 1h ADX 15.4 slope +0.33 (sub-trend, barely firming), choppiness 51.7 neutral, ER-10 0.34/ER-30 0.33 (noisy, nets little), Hurst 0.45 near-random, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm, transitional gold tape with a mild upward tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — spot gold +0.83% 24h, net moves positive (4h +0.61%, 24h +0.88%), taker ratio 1.62 buy-heavy, DXY soft (-0.43%), us10y down, VIX up (risk-off gold bid). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is macro+flow — gold spot up with soft DXY/yields and risk-off VIX supports the gold bid, reinforced by recent buy-side taker pressure and OI accelerating up on the recent half. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is pinned near the 5d/20d/90d high (-0.57%), so a failed breakout and rejection back below reclaimed level invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4179.42; stop below recent swing structure at 4147 (~0.78% ≈ 0.6x the 1.27% avg daily range, honest invalidation); stretch TP at 4219 (~0.95% up, R:R ~1.24, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h ~0.53% but net_24h already ran 0.88% — a continuation push past the local high). 6. EXPECTATION: calm chop with mild up-tilt, near highs — modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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