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PAXGUSD long — 26 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,022.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,017.8 with a price move of -0.12%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-26 03:12 |
| Entry | 4,022.8 |
| Stop-loss | 3,998 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,040.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,053 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,017.8 |
| Realized P&L | -0.12% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA stacks bear_aligned but 5m/15m bull_aligned (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed), 1h ADX 24 slope +0.05 (flat), 4h ADX 56 but 4h RSI 42.7 recovering, choppiness 46.7 (neutral), ER-10 0.29/ER-30 0.24 (noisy), Hurst 0.52 (neutral), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold tape with a near-term bounce fighting an intact higher-TF down leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — spot gold +0.43% 24h, net moves positive (+0.30% 4h, +0.44% 12h), price off the 5d low (+0.74%), rolling z -1.07 (stretched down, mean-revert bias), top traders heavily long (pos ratio 3.37), OI accelerating up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the fresh bounce — 5m/15m EMA stacks flipped bull, positive net 4h/12h momentum, OI accelerating_up with top-trader position ratio 3.37 and spot gold green — a reclaim attempt off the depressed z-score after the -4.1% 5d slide. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h/1h still bear_aligned; if spot gold rolls back over and 15m bull stack fails, the dominant down leg resumes and this fades. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4022.81, stop below the recent reclaim shelf / toward 5d low at 3998.0 (~0.62% ≈ 0.5x the 1.06% avg daily range), take_profit_1 at 4053.0 (~0.75%, R:R ≈ 1.2x, inside clamps) targeting a retest toward the 5d-high vicinity. 6. EXPECTATION: calm vol, mixed TF, modest edge — p_tp1 46, p_sl 36, p_expire 18.
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