PAXGUSD short — 28 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,019.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,027.9 with a price move of -0.20%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-28 10:03 |
| Entry | 4,019.7 |
| Stop-loss | 4,048 |
| Take-profit 1 | 3,997.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 3,982 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,027.9 |
| Realized P&L | -0.20% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 30 rising (+2.8 slope), 4h ADX 20, choppiness 36 (trending edge), Hurst 0.54 — a transitional-to-weak-bear tape; 5m/15m EMA bear-aligned while 1h/4h mixed, macro gold -0.61% 1d and -0.53% 5d. 2. LEAN CHECK: short-side momentum dominates the fast TFs — net_move_24h -1.74%, net_move_4h -0.54%, gold spot -1.62% 24h, OI accelerating_down, taker ratio 0.94 (sellers) — the lean is short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh downside momentum aligned with macro gold weakness and OI unwind (oi_5m_z -1.53, oi_momentum accelerating_down), price sitting near 5d low (+0.05%) with rolling z -1.01; the counter is top-traders very long (pos ratio 2.77) but that ratio is fading (-0.062 over 4h), consistent with continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is oversold across all TFs (5m 26.8, 15m 29.7, 1h 27.5) and price rests right on the 5d/20d low — a fear_greed=29 reversal bounce off support would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4019.72, stop above the recent 4h consolidation ceiling at 4048 (beyond the reclaim level), TP at prior lower-low extension near 3982 — stop 28.3, reward 37.7, R:R ~1.33, reachable given avg_move_24h ~0.79% and RV pctile 44. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-into-support tempers conviction; p_tp1 41, p_sl 36, p_expire 23.
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