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BTCUSD short — 28 Jul 2026 (stopped out)

This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,045.7 and stopped out at 63,720 after 1.5 hours, closing at -1.07%.

AssetBTCUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-07-28 13:48
Entry63,045.7
Stop-loss63,720
Take-profit 162,438.8
Take-profit 2 (stretch)62,034.3
Reward:risk at entry1.50
Outcomestopped out
Close price63,720
Realized P&L-1.07%
Time open1.5 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 1h/15m/5m EMA all bear_aligned, 4h mixed, ADX_1h 30.8 rising (+0.88 slope), choppiness 50, Hurst 0.49 (near-random), HMM calm — a genuine bear pullback with strengthening 1h trend momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence favors short — price down -3.6% 24h, at 20d/90d lows (dist_from_low +0.00%), bear EMA stack across lower TFs. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — fresh net_move_4h -0.54% continuing the -3.32% 24h leg, OI falling (oi_5m_z -2.15, agg_oi_24h -1.4%) as price drops signaling longs unwinding into weakness, taker ratio 0.90 sell-skewed, funding z -2.15 (unwind not yet capitulation), fear&greed 29. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is oversold across 5m(22.9)/1h(29.7) and rolling z -2.28 — a mean-reversion bounce off the 90d low would invalidate; top-trader pos ratio 1.66 long also leans against me. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,045; stop above the recent 4h consolidation shelf at 63,720 (beyond a modest reclaim, ~1.07%); stretch TP at 62,000 continuation toward next support (~1.66%, R:R ~1.5, within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.23% and elevated RV pctile 82.7%). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold RSI raises bounce risk, so I keep a real p_expire.

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