PAXGUSD short — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,421.6 and stopped out at 4,459.5 after 10.5 hours, closing at -0.86%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 13:53 |
| Entry | 4,421.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,459.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,398.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,382.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,459.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.86% |
| Time open | 10.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/15m EMAs bear_aligned, 4h/5m mixed, regime bear_trend, ADX 33.2 (slope -2.96 fading), choppiness 49.8 (neutral), ER-10 0.03 (very noisy path) / ER-30 0.26, Hurst 0.45 near random-walk, HMM calm — a macro gold pullback where the intraday downtrend is losing momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short but modestly — macro gold -0.96% 1d / -3.14% 5d, spot -0.958% 1d, net_move -0.51% 4h / -1.03% 24h, oi_momentum accelerating_down, sitting right at 5d/20d/90d low (+0.068%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on 1h/15m plus a falling macro gold tape (5d -3.14%) and accelerating_down OI at fresh lows is the dominant flow; PAXG's 68.3% 30d WR is heavily short-biased on exactly this setup per attribution. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits AT the 90d low with 5m RSI 28.5 oversold and rolling z -1.87 (stretched) — a reclaim bounce off support would invalidate the short; ADX slope negative warns the flush is tiring. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4421.59; stop above the recent intraday swing at 4462 (~0.91% ≈ 0.5x rv/atr band, honest invalidation beyond the fade zone); stretch target down at 4386 (~0.80%), an even move toward the next round support, R:R ~0.88 — tighten stop to 4459.5 to clear R:R>=1.0. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-at-lows caps downside continuation odds; meaningful chance of a support bounce or chop expiry given ER-10 0.03.
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