PAXGUSD short — 2 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,307.6 and stopped out at 4,342.5 after 5.1 hours, closing at -0.81%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-02 02:03 |
| Entry | 4,307.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,342.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,286.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,272.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,342.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.81% |
| Time open | 5.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMAs all bear_aligned (4h mixed but 4h RSI 20.3 deeply oversold), regime bear_trend, ADX 43.4 1h with slope +3.56 (strengthening), 4h ADX 55, choppiness 41.5 (trending edge), ER-10 0.63 (clean), Hurst 0.43, HMM calm — an intact, strengthening intraday gold downtrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — macro gold spot -3.13% 1d, net_move -3.06% 24h / -1.38% 12h / -0.79% 4h, all four TFs bear-voting. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — strengthening ADX with the full 5m/15m/1h EMA stack bearish and a fresh macro gold selloff (spot -3.13%), the highest-conviction and highest-track-record repeat setup on this asset (PAXG 67.4% wr, XAUT 72.7%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSI (1h 25.9, 4h 20.3), rolling z -2.28, price sitting exactly on 5d/20d/90d low (+0.13%), taker 1h 0.702 sell-heavy but a mean-reversion bounce off the extreme low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 4307.58, stop above the recent swing/reclaim at 4342.5 (~0.81% ≈ 0.9x the 0.865% typical 24h traversal, sane for RV pctile 89.8%), target 4272.5 for a structural break below the low (~0.81% down, R:R ~1.0). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-into-low limits downside continuation odds, but trend/momentum favor short; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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