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PAXGUSD short — 14 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,286.5 and stopped out at 4,322 after 3.4 hours, closing at -0.83%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 13:24 |
| Entry | 4,286.5 |
| Stop-loss | 4,322 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,261.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,245 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,322 |
| Realized P&L | -0.83% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), 1h ADX 32.6 slope +7.5 (genuine trend strengthening), choppiness 38.4 (trending edge), ER-10 0.53 moderately clean, Hurst 0.41 mild mean-revert, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm but strengthening gold down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — full bearish stack, net_move_pct_24h -1.48%, gold spot -1.55% 24h, rolling_z_20d -2.64, price pinned near 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish 4/4 stack with strengthening ADX and macro tailwind (gold -1.55% spot, DXY +0.36%, US10Y 4.975 rising) all point down; this exact setup won 3 of the last live PAXG shorts. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h RSI deeply oversold (28/25) and top-traders net long 2.5x — an oversold bounce / mean-revert snap toward the 20d mean would invalidate a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4286.46; stop_loss 4322.00 above the recent 4h swing/consolidation shelf (~0.83% = ~1.6x avg_24h move, sane for calm gold); take_profit_1 4245.00, a stretch ~0.97% below into the next structural support extension of the down-leg, R:R ~1.17. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold condition tempers downside continuation but trend + macro favor it modestly.
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