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PAXGUSD short — 22 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,303.2 and stopped out at 4,340.5 after 4.5 hours, closing at -0.87%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 07:53 |
| Entry | 4,303.2 |
| Stop-loss | 4,340.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,280.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,265.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,340.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.87% |
| Time open | 4.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (5m/15m/4h bear-aligned, 1h mixed), 1h ADX 19.7 slope +4.2 (weak but strengthening), choppiness 43.7 leaning trend, ER-10 0.38/ER-30 0.30 moderately noisy, Hurst 0.34 mean-revert, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold tape with a fresh down-leg building. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — gold spot -1.0% 1d, net_move 4h/12h/24h all negative (~-0.8%), 5m/15m/4h bear-aligned, price at 5d/20d/90d high offset -1.97% pressing lower. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum cluster — sustained negative net move across all horizons plus bear EMA stack on 3 of 4 TFs and OI accelerating_down while price falls (bearish OI unwind) — trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 27, 15m 27, 1h 29) and z-score -1.18, so a mean-revert bounce is the primary risk; top-trader pos ratio 3.3 (heavily long) fading only slowly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4303.20; stop above the recent intraday reclaim shelf at 4340.5 (~0.87%, within the ~1.4-1.7% daily range); TP stretch at 4267.5 (~0.83% down, R:R ~0.96) — trimmed to keep R:R ≥1 place TP at 4265.5 for ~1.05x stop distance toward the prior support leg. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI raises bounce risk and gold vol is low, so meaningful expire probability.
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