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PAXGUSD short — 25 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,001.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 3,996.1 with a price move of +0.14%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-25 01:57 |
| Entry | 4,001.7 |
| Stop-loss | 4,029.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 3,983.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 3,972 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 3,996.1 |
| Realized P&L | +0.14% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA stacks both bear_aligned but 5m/15m mixed (alignment 2/4), 1h ADX 50.6 with slope -1.9 (strong but fading trend), choppiness 34.7 (trending), ER-10 0.73 (recent clean push) but ER-30 0.12 (nets nowhere longer-horizon), Hurst 0.47 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm conf 1.0, RV 24h at 2nd percentile (very compressed) — a calm gold tape that has sold off hard (4h RSI 26 oversold) and is now stalling. 2. LEAN CHECK: the down leg is intact (net_24h flat +0.01%, net_12h -0.06%, spot gold +0.04%) but momentum is fading — ADX slope negative, 4h oversold, rolling z -1.78, sitting +0.25% off 5d/20d/90d lows — this is a stretched-down tape with modest reclaim potential; slight short lean on the dominant 1h/4h trend but it's thin. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: lean short on the intact 1h/4h bear EMA stack + high ADX, taker ratio 0.38 (sellers dominant last hour), OI accelerating_down (-2.1% recent half) confirming continued unwind lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 26 oversold + rolling z -1.78 + sitting right at 90d lows means a bounce/reclaim is very plausible — if price reclaims above the local stall it invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4001.68; stop beyond the recent stall high at 4029.5 (~0.70% = ~1.1x the 0.58% avg 24h move, within range); target the 5d-low retest zone at 3972.0 (~0.74% down), R:R ~1.05, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 0.58% and ongoing down leg. 6. EXPECTATION: thin edge against an oversold bounce risk, meaningful chance of neither hitting given RV compression.
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