SOLUSD long — 11 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 76.4313 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 75.638 with a price move of -1.04%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 22:11 |
| Entry | 76.4313 |
| Stop-loss | 75.31 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77.4025 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.44 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 75.638 |
| Realized P&L | -1.04% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 — 5m EMA bull-aligned but 15m/1h/4h all mixed, ADX_1h 25.8 with negative slope (-3.24, fading), adx_20 20.6, Hurst 0.40 (mean-reverting), choppiness 44.4 (borderline), ER10/30 ~0.19/0.12 (noisy/nets nowhere), HMM calm — a transitional chop with a fresh short-term upward push. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is up (net +1.54% 4h under a flat +0.25% 24h), top-traders lean long (pos ratio 1.61, account 2.62, both rising 4h), funding deeply negative (agg z -1.60, binance neg) = short-crowded fuel for squeeze, price near 5d/20d high; the long side has the modest edge. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the fresh 4h momentum thrust (+1.54%) with 5m bull stack and top-trader positioning tilted long into negative funding — a short-covering bias, trend-aligned with the near-term push; this matches SOLUSD's winning recent long-lean pattern. 4. PRE-MORTEM: fading 1h ADX slope, RSI 70 overbought on 15m, and OI accelerating_down (oi_momentum accelerating_down, agg OI -6.1%) mean the push is unsupported by fresh longs — a stall and mean-reversion back below 75.5 kills it. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 76.43; invalidation below the recent consolidation shelf, stop at 75.31 (~1.46% below, within the ~2.8% 7d range and rv context); stretch target at 78.05 (~2.12%, R:R ~1.45) toward the intraday resistance near the prior push high. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought + fading ADX + OI draining caps upside, so meaningful expire probability.
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