SOLUSD long — 17 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 75.593 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 75.627 with a price move of +0.04%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-17 04:13 |
| Entry | 75.593 |
| Stop-loss | 74.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 76.3472 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 76.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 75.627 |
| Realized P&L | +0.04% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 — 5m/15m EMA bull-turning, 1h bear-aligned, 4h bull-aligned; ADX_1h 20.8 with negative slope (-4.3), adx_20 17, Hurst 0.29 (strongly mean-reverting), choppiness 42, ER30 0.003 (nets nowhere), HMM calm — a low-directionality chop tape with a fresh near-term upward wobble. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is up (net +1.33% 4h) with 5m RSI 71 overbought, top-trader pos ratio 1.57 (account ratio 2.73) firmly long, but OI is accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.16, agg OI -9.7% 24h) and taker 0.984 flat — modestly two-sided but a thin long lean from the fresh 4h push plus supportive top-trader positioning. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is the fresh +1.33% 4h push with 4h EMA still bull-aligned and top-traders leaning long, giving a near-term continuation lean back toward the 5d high just 1.6% overhead. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down while price rises = a short-covering/thin bounce; if OI keeps bleeding and 5m RSI 71 rolls over, this fails fast — SOL's 30d track record here is weak (47% wr). 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent swing / 5d-low proximity at 74.55 (~1.4% risk, within rv_24h span); stretch target 76.85 toward the 5d high (~1.66% reward, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime + mean-reverting Hurst + OI bleed cap follow-through, so meaningful expire probability.
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