SOLUSD long — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 104.4671 and stopped out at 102.35 after 13.8 hours, closing at -2.03%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 18:38 |
| Entry | 104.4671 |
| Stop-loss | 102.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 106.1968 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 107.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.36 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 102.35 |
| Realized P&L | -2.03% |
| Time open | 13.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/4h bull EMA, 15m/1h mixed), 1h ADX 22 slope -3.2 (fading), 4h ADX 22.8, ER10 0.23 / ER30 0.09 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 56, Hurst 0.55, HMM calm 0.997 — a cooling, transitional tape drifting after a -2.1% day. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — 4h EMA stack bull, top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.01, acct 1.91), OI accelerating_up with recent-half OI +0.78%, and the last 4h/12h net moves both positive (+0.94%/+1.68%) suggest a bounce off the 5d-low proximity. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/flow — top-trader pos ratio 2.01 with OI accelerating_up and positive recent-half OI build supports a continuation of the near-term recovery, trend-aligned with the still-bull 4h EMA stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: negative funding (agg z -0.74, binance funding negative) plus a broad crypto risk-off day (total mcap -2.98%, BTC dom rising) could pull SOL back down through the 4h-low; a break below ~102 kills the bounce thesis. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 104.47, stop below the recent swing/invalidation at 102.35 (~2.0% ≈ 0.55x rv given SOL's ~6.5% avg daily range — comfortably within stop-width), stretch TP at 107.35 (~2.76% up, R:R ~1.36, inside clamps) targeting the 5d-high reclaim zone. 6. EXPECTATION: modest single-cluster edge in transitional chop — p_tp1 46, p_sl 38, p_expire 16.
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