AAVEUSD short — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 123.5128 and stopped out at 126.46 after 10 hours, closing at -2.39%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 17:38 |
| Entry | 123.5128 |
| Stop-loss | 126.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 121.4651 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 120.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 126.46 |
| Realized P&L | -2.39% |
| Time open | 10 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: alignment 2/4 with 1h/15m bear_aligned but 4h bull_aligned, 1h ADX 17.9 fading (-2.29 slope), choppiness 60.9 (range-bound), ER-10 0.04 / ER-30 0.15 (path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.50, HMM calm — low-conviction chop with a bearish near-term tilt inside a bull-stacked 4h. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — near-term EMA stacks (1h/15m) are bearish, taker ratio 0.766 (sellers dominant, and 24h history mostly sub-1), OI bleeding -6.4% into a -4.2% 24h down-day. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — heavy taker selling (0.766, hourly buckets persistently <1), agg OI -6.1% and Binance OI z -1.0/-1.15 falling into a down-move (longs being flushed, not fresh shorts covering), aligned with the near-term bear EMA stacks; funding neutral-to-negative unwinding. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader pos ratio 1.85 (long-heavy) plus 4h bull EMA stack means a reclaim of the 5d-high area / a taker-flip back above 1.0 would flip this to a bull-stacked HTF continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 123.51; stop above near-term structure at 126.35 (~2.3% risk, ~0.5x rv, beyond a reclaim); target the stretch toward the 5d-low region at 120.10 (~2.76% below, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal 4.1%). 6. EXPECTATION: chop with soft bearish tilt — modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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