SOLUSD short — 2 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 73.48 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 72.877 with a price move of +0.82%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-02 05:00 |
| Entry | 73.48 |
| Stop-loss | 75.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 72.067 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 71.125 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 72.877 |
| Realized P&L | +0.82% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA stacks bear_aligned, mtf_alignment mixed (0/4 alignment score), ADX 1h 29.9 but slope fading (-2.59), Hurst 0.44 (mildly mean-reverting), funding negative (z -1.45, agg z -1.61) — a bear trend that is decelerating, with a short-term bounce underway (net_move_4h +1.19%, ER10 0.97, taker 1.35 buying). 2. LEAN CHECK: higher-TF (1h/4h) is bearish and this asset's own track record is dismal (25% WR, short-favored 45% vs long 39%); the fresh 4h/12h upside is a counter-trend bounce with no reclaim of a broken structure — I lean short-aligned with the dominant HTF trend at modest confidence. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend is bear-aligned on 1h/4h, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -0.50, oi_change_recent_half -0.87%, agg OI -20% 24h), funding unwinding negative — the bounce is buyers into a falling-OI downtrend, and the two winning prior shorts here matched exactly this fading-bear + crowded-long/decelerating-OI pattern. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the near-term momentum is genuinely bullish (5m/15m bull/overbought RSI 76, taker 1.35, net_move_12h +2.2%) — if price reclaims the 5d high (~1.7% up) with continuation, the bear thesis is dead. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 73.48; stop 75.05 (above 5d high at -1.72% / ~74.77, beyond the invalidation), risk ~2.14%; TP 70.65 at the lower structural zone, reward ~3.86% → R:R ~1.8. 6. EXPECTATION: bounce may extend given strong short-TF momentum, so meaningful p_expire and elevated p_sl.
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