SOLUSD short — 3 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 72.8911 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 73.826 with a price move of -1.28%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-03 05:00 |
| Entry | 72.8911 |
| Stop-loss | 74.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 71.5781 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 70.7028 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 73.826 |
| Realized P&L | -1.28% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 14.98 with negative slope (-1.03) and ADX_20 12.3, Hurst 0.45 (mildly mean-reverting), choppiness 41.8 — a low-conviction, transitional chop regime, but 5m and 4h EMA stacks are bear_aligned and net moves are negative across 4h/12h/24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest bearish lean — 4h/5m bear-aligned, price down -0.96% 24h, sitting near 5d low, but funding is crowded-long (funding z +1.23, agg funding z +1.34, top-trader pos ratio 1.78 long) which supports downside pressure if longs unwind. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 4h bear stack + crowded longs (funding z positive, top traders 1.78x long) with OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.44, agg OI -3.2%, oi_change -3.9%) is the classic overhang; but ADX is weak/fading and this asset's short-side track record on recent bear-trend calls is mixed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker_buy_sell 1.40 (fresh buying) and hourly taker history recently >1 shows near-term bid; a reclaim above the 5d-high region (~2.5% up) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 72.89, stop above recent structure at 74.35 (beyond the intraday buy pressure / ~2% up), TP1 stretch at 70.55 (down toward the next support, ~3.2% travel vs 2% risk = R:R ~1.6, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 1.49% and p90 range ~5%). 6. EXPECTATION: weak trend + crowded-long unwind favors modest downside but ADX fading and buy-side taker temper it; heavier expire probability given chop.
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