SOLUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 99.7706 and hit its target at 97.6291 after 16.5 hours, closing at +2.15%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 18:18 |
| Entry | 99.7706 |
| Stop-loss | 102.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 97.6291 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 96.2015 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 97.6291 |
| Realized P&L | +2.15% |
| Time open | 16.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear-aligned deeply oversold RSI 23-26, 1h mixed RSI 26 oversold, 4h still bull EMA RSI 37), 1h ADX 21 slope +5.2, ER10 0.68 (clean recent one-way down) / ER30 0.24 (nets nowhere), choppiness 39, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm 0.9999 — a cooling HTF uptrend rolling over into a fresh downside push, low-ADX transitional tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net -2.2% 4h / -3.5% 12h / -4.5% 24h, all fresh downside momentum with strengthening 1h ADX. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum cluster + flow — clean recent downside (ER10 0.68, negative net moves across all horizons), taker sell pressure (1h ratio 0.84), OI unwinding (-3% 24h, oi_5m_z -1.7), aligning with the well-worn SOLUSD short-in-rollover pattern that won repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSIs (5m 23, 15m 26, 1h 26) plus top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.04) and very negative funding z (-1.99) set up a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims and stops me out. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 99.77, stop above the intraday reclaim shelf at 102.15 (~2.4% / ~0.5x 24h RV, structural not round), target 96.15 stretch (~1.5x stop distance, inside 4% clamp) at the 5d-low continuation zone. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum favors continuation but oversold + long-heavy top-traders cap it — p_tp1 42, p_sl 35, p_expire 23.
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