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SOLUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 107.66 and hit its target at 106.034 after 7.5 hours, closing at +1.51%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 03:35 |
| Entry | 107.66 |
| Stop-loss | 110.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 106.034 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 104.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 106.034 |
| Realized P&L | +1.51% |
| Time open | 7.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 2/4 (15m/1h bear_aligned, 5m/4h mixed), 1h ADX 39.9 slope +2.3 (strong, firming), but ER10 0.011 / ER30 0.15 and choppiness 33.4 — path nets nowhere short-term despite high ADX, Hurst 0.45 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a bear-leaning tape that just stalled/bounced. 2. LEAN CHECK: net -3.67%/24h and -1.15%/12h are down, but net +1.80%/4h is a fresh bounce; 15m/1h EMAs bear-aligned, z=-1.35 below 20d mean, 6.65% below 5d_high — SHORT lean with the dominant trend, the 4h pop is a counter-trend retrace to sell into. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 15m/1h bear stacks + strong firming ADX, OI falling (-3.1%/24h, oi_z -1.19, decelerating) with 24h momentum deeply negative; the +1.80%/4h bounce lifted 5m RSI to 72.8 (overbought) into resistance, a classic sell-the-rip. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker ratio 1.39 (buy-heavy last hour) and top-trader pos ratio 2.06 (longs dominant) — if the 4h bounce extends and reclaims the 5d VWAP region, the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 107.66; stop 110.35 beyond the overbought-bounce swing high (~2.5% / within rv range); TP 104.95 at the recent consolidation shelf toward 5d_low (dist 2.52%, R:R ~1.0, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but into a buy-heavy bounce in a mean-reverting tape — moderate edge.
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