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DOGEUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.08438 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.08525 with a price move of -1.03%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 03:35 |
| Entry | 0.08438 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08625 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.082922 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08195 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.08525 |
| Realized P&L | -1.03% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 but 15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned, 1h ADX 38.2 slope +1.65 (strong, mildly strengthening), choppiness 35.4 (<38 trending), ER-10 0.07 / ER-30 0.14 (very noisy path), Hurst 0.47 random-walk, HMM calm 99.72% — a bear-aligned structure but with a very choppy recent path and a short-term bounce. 2. LEAN CHECK: net 4h is +2.56% (fresh pop) against net 24h -2.99% — the HTF trend is down and the 4h is a counter-trend bounce into resistance; 5m RSI 73.9 overbought, taker ratio jumped to 1.38 on the bounce; lean short on the trend side as the bounce fades. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster (15m/1h/4h bear EMA stack + ADX 38) plus flow cluster (OI collapsing -11.9%/-12.9% agg, oi_5m_z -1.50, decelerating — longs unwinding not fresh buying) favor the downside; the +2.56% 4h pop is a low-ER retrace into the broken 5d area (price only -4.5% from 5d high) that should roll back over with the dominant trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a decisive reclaim above the 5d-high zone with ADX re-accelerating and taker ratio staying >1.3 would invalidate the fade and signal a trend reversal. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.084380; stop above the bounce/resistance invalidation at 0.08625 (~2.2% — within the ~5% 7d daily range and ~2.0% 4h ATR span); take_profit_1 at 0.08195, ~2.3% below entry (RR ~1.05, inside 1.5x/4% clamps), targeting a retest of the 24h lows. 6. EXPECTATION: strong HTF trend but very low ER and an active counter-bounce raise expire/whip risk.
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