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SOLUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 106.2615 and hit its target at 105.0246 after 3.1 hours, closing at +1.16%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 10:05 |
| Entry | 106.2615 |
| Stop-loss | 108.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 105.0246 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 104.2 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 105.0246 |
| Realized P&L | +1.16% |
| Time open | 3.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, but 1h ADX 14.2 slope -0.39 (sub-trend, fading), ER30 0.18 / choppiness 54.2 (mid-range), Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm 1.0 — a bear-tilted CHOP, trend direction down but weak conviction. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT leans — net -0.90%/4h, -0.75%/12h fresh momentum down, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.20, agg_oi -2.03%), taker 0.82 sell-heavy; the one counter is top-trader pos ratio 2.12 (long-skewed) and price z=-1.31 (stretched down). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — accelerating_down OI shedding on sell-heavy takers inside a 4/4 bear EMA stack, trend-aligned continuation lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is already z=-1.31 below 20d mean and +3.2% off 5d/20d/90d low with mean-reverting Hurst — a reclaim bounce toward the 5d_high area would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 106.26, stop above recent swing/invalidation at 108.15 (~1.78%, within the ~2.1% 24h traversal), stretch target 104.20 (~1.94% down, ~1.1x stop distance, inside clamps) at the lower consolidation shelf. 6. EXPECTATION: weak trend + stretched position + strong SOL track record balance to a modest short edge.
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