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SOLUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 107.9373 and hit its target at 106.4449 after 1.7 hours, closing at +1.38%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 08:20 |
| Entry | 107.9373 |
| Stop-loss | 110.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 106.4449 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 105.45 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.12 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 106.4449 |
| Realized P&L | +1.38% |
| Time open | 1.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 alignment (mixed), 1h ADX 15.1 slope -1.3 (sub-trend, fading), 4h bear_aligned with ADX 34 but RSI 44, ER10 0.30 / ER30 0.11 (nets nowhere), choppiness 61.5 (>61 = range-bound), Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm — this is CHOP within a broader 4h bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence is near two-sided — 4h bear structure and price z=-0.98 below 20d mean lean bearish, but net moves are flat (-0.03%/4h, +0.74%/12h, +0.26%/24h), taker 1.03 neutral, top-trader pos ratio 2.13 heavily long; the thinnest real edge is a modest short back toward the recent lows given the 4h bear EMA stack and fading momentum. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: single cluster is 4h/1h bear EMA stack + price pressed under 5d_high (-4.6%) and sitting mid-range after no 24h progress — the higher-timeframe lean is down and OI is decelerating/falling (-1.66%/24h, oi_5m_z -0.83). 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio of 2.13 (heavy longs) plus fear/greed 62 Greed and BTC-dom stable means a reclaim of 109 would flip this to a chop-long and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 107.94; stop above the recent swing / reclaim zone at 110.15 (~2.05%, within 24h ~2.1% traversal and under the 4h atr 1.8%); stretch target down at 105.45 (~2.31%, R:R ~1.1x) at the lower-range support. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with weak directional conviction and a historically poor long record here but short-bias working — modest edge, meaningful expire probability.
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