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SOLUSD short — 22 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 103.6027 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 104.663 with a price move of -1.02%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-22 16:54 |
| Entry | 103.6027 |
| Stop-loss | 105.45 |
| Take-profit 1 | 102.3111 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 101.45 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 104.663 |
| Realized P&L | -1.02% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (5m/15m/4h bear, 1h mixed), 1h ADX 32.9 but slope -0.48 fading, ER30 0.24 / choppiness 53 / Hurst 0.40 all flag a mean-reverting non-trending path; HMM calm conf 1.0 — transitional structure tilting DOWN near-term. 2. LEAN CHECK: thin-but-real SHORT — three of four TFs bear-aligned, net_move_pct_24h -4.31 / 12h -1.86 / 4h -0.75 all negative, OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.13, agg_oi -5.63, oi_momentum decelerating) confirming a managed decline not a bounce setup. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF bear stack (4h/15m/5m) plus falling OI into the move is the trend-aligned down case; the only bull tell is taker 1.37 and top-trader pos ratio 2.1 (crowded long into a drop — a contrarian fade target, not support). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSIs are deeply oversold (5m 30, 15m 33, 1h 33) and price sits just above the 5d/20d/90d low (+2.75%) — a mean-reversion bounce would invalidate; the recent same-regime track record is also poor (5 chop calls, 3 SL / 2 expire). 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the 1h mixed-EMA reclaim / recent swing at 105.45 (dist ~1.78%, within rv_24h 40.9% / atr context); target down toward the 5d/90d low zone at 101.45 (dist ~2.08%, R:R ~1.17, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + at-lows raises bounce/expire odds, so I keep p_sl and p_expire meaningful.
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