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SOLUSD short — 26 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 101.2103 and hit its target at 99.9441 after 1.6 hours, closing at +1.25%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-26 02:12 |
| Entry | 101.2103 |
| Stop-loss | 102.98 |
| Take-profit 1 | 99.9441 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 99.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 99.9441 |
| Realized P&L | +1.25% |
| Time open | 1.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed but 15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned (5m mixed), 1h ADX 20.4 slope +1.5 (sub-trend, firming slightly), 4h ADX 25.7, ER10 0.38 / ER30 0.04 / choppiness 60.7 / Hurst 0.41 — a mean-reverting path inside a bearish EMA stack; HMM calm conf 1.0, RV at 23rd pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — three higher TFs bear-aligned, net moves all negative (4h -0.38, 12h -0.19, 24h -1.21), price -6.8% off 5d/20d/90d high and rolling z -1.53, down day with broad crypto weakness (total mcap -3.77%, total3 -5.98%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the dominant cluster is HTF trend alignment (15m/1h/4h bear stack + down net moves), reinforced by macro risk-off (SPX -0.52%, VIX +2.2%, BTC ETF -137.9M outflow, BTC dom rising to 60%) — alts bleed in this tape; SOL track record favors short-side continuation here. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.16 (heavily long) plus oi_momentum accelerating_up and oi_5m_z +2.15 — if that fresh long OI defends and squeezes, a reclaim of ~102.5 breaks the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 101.21, stop above the firming-OI invalidation at 102.98 (1.75% / ~0.5x the 3.34% 7d range, structurally beyond the recent minor shelf), stretch target 99.10 toward the 5d-low zone — distance 2.09% vs 1.77% risk ≈ 1.18x RR, inside clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal ~1.48%+. 6. EXPECTATION: bearish trend lean but choppy mean-reverting structure and crowded longs that could defend cap conviction.
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