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SOLUSD short — 30 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 95.5 and stopped out at 97.85 after 2.4 hours, closing at -2.46%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-30 02:42 |
| Entry | 95.5 |
| Stop-loss | 97.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 93.88 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 92.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 97.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.46% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), 1h ADX 33.4 slope +7.4 (strengthening), ER10 0.53 / choppiness 32.6 (sub-38 trending) / Hurst 0.31 — a genuine accelerating bear-trend day, HMM calm conf 1.0, RV 24h at 100th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: clean short bias — price down -4.6% 24h / -1.6% last 4h, OI unwinding into the drop, funding positive while price falls (longs underwater). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short is trend-aligned with three confirming clusters — (a) full_bearish MTF + rising ADX, (b) OI accelerating_down (-14% 24h, oi_5m_z -1.9, agg_oi -11.8) confirming longs capitulating, (c) positive agg funding z +1.46 while price drops = crowded longs bleeding; taker ratio 0.88 (sell-side). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits only +1.6% off the 5d/20d/90d low with z_score -2.79 (deeply stretched) — a mean-reversion bounce off the low invalidates continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 95.50, stop above the recent 4h swing/invalidation at 97.85 (~2.46% / within atr_pct_4h 2.23 range); stretch target 92.80 just under the fresh lows, ~2.83% move, R:R ~1.15, inside 4% clamp. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but deep oversold stretch raises bounce risk — p_tp1 46, p_sl 38, p_expire 16.
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