XAUTUSD long — 14 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on XAUTUSD entered at 4,365.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,364 with a price move of -0.04%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 12:28 |
| Entry | 4,365.7 |
| Stop-loss | 4,335 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,387.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,402 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,364 |
| Realized P&L | -0.04% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Transitional within a macro gold uptrend — 4h EMA bull_aligned/ADX 31.4 strong, 5m bull_aligned, but 1h/15m EMA mixed, 1h ADX 17.9 slope -2.0 (fading), MTF 2/4 mixed, choppiness 46, Hurst 0.45, HMM calm full confidence. 2. LEAN CHECK: mild long — macro gold decisively strong (+0.81% 1d, +1.34% 5d), DXY soft (-0.20%), US10y down (-0.88%), and recent 4h/12h net moves positive (+0.61%/+0.76%) despite -0.25% 24h; token is holding near 5d highs (-1.26% from 5d high). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — the dominant driver is the macro gold overlay (all three macro tailwinds aligned: gold up, DXY down, yields down), reinforced by top_trader_pos_ratio 1.68 net long and positive short-term net_move momentum; 4h trend structure remains bullish. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down (-7.8% 24h, oi_momentum accelerating_down) plus deeply negative funding z (-2.9) signals position unwind — a break of the 5d low / macro gold reversal would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4365.74; stop below recent structure at 4335 (~0.70% risk, ~0.9x the 0.76% avg 24h traversal, honest invalidation below intraday support); stretch TP at 4402 (~0.83% reward, R:R ~1.2, near the 33k macro gold spot reference at 4399 and 4h resistance, reachable within 24h). 6. EXPECTATION: gold token wr strong (65%) and macro aligned, but OI unwind and fading 1h ADX cap conviction.
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