AAVEUSD short — 14 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 85.6255 and stopped out at 87.35 after 20.9 hours, closing at -2.01%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 12:43 |
| Entry | 85.6255 |
| Stop-loss | 87.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 84.2602 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 83.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.32 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 87.35 |
| Realized P&L | -2.01% |
| Time open | 20.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF 4/4, all TFs bear EMA-stacked, 1h ADX 32.6 rising (slope +5.5), choppiness 34.6 (trending), Hurst 0.37 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly short — trend, momentum (net -2.02% 4h, -3.18% 12h, -3.58% 24h) and OI (accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -2.18, agg OI -4.0%) all point down; only caveat is deeply oversold RSI (15m 21.8, 5m 27.6) and rolling_z -2.93. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: three confirming clusters — HTF trend (4/4 bear, rising ADX), flow (taker 0.79 sell-heavy, OI accelerating_down with strong negative z), and momentum breaking to fresh lows (dist from 5d/20d/90d low = 0.00, price is the low) — trend-aligned short with strengthening ADX. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSI + rolling_z -2.93 + top-trader pos ratio still net long (1.38) sets up a sharp mean-revert bounce that reclaims recent structure. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 85.63; stop above the last minor swing / invalidation at 87.35 (~2.0% = ~1.4x 4h ATR range, within RV); stretch target 83.35 (~2.66% down, R:R ~1.33, inside clamps) — an honest extension of the fresh-low break. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched into oversold, so bounce risk is real; p_tp1 46 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 20.
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