XAUTUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on XAUTUSD entered at 4,574.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,581.4 with a price move of +0.15%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 05:20 |
| Entry | 4,574.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,534 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,601.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,620 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.13 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,581.4 |
| Realized P&L | +0.15% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Higher-TF gold bull_trend — 15m/1h/4h all EMA bull_aligned, 4h ADX 44.5/RSI 70.8 (overbought), 1h ADX 29.9 but slope -3.33 (fading), 5m bear_aligned/RSI 34, MTF only 2/4 mixed, ER-30 0.27, choppiness 45 neutral, Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — an intact uptrend with a near-term intraday pullback. 2. LEAN CHECK: mild long — macro gold spot +1.19% 1d, silver ETF +1.72%, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.47), top-trader pos ratio 1.49 net long, small Delta premium +0.11%; near-term momentum (net 4h -0.28%, net 12h -0.55%) is soft but higher-TF trend dominates. 3. THESIS: trend + flow cluster — higher-TF EMA stack fully bull, aggregated OI +1.06% with accelerating_up momentum, and top-trader positions leaning long align with the persistent gold uptrend; a dip into the 1h EMA support is a trend-aligned entry. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m already bear_aligned and rolling z +2.09 (stretched) — if the pullback deepens through 1h EMA support with continued negative taker flow, the long fails. 5. LEVELS: entry 4574.40; stop 4534.0 below recent intraday support / ~0.88% (roughly 0.55x 24h range, structural invalidation); stretch TP 4620.0 (~1.0% up, R:R ~1.13, inside clamps) toward the 5d high region. 6. EXPECTATION: gold traverses ~0.97% typical 24h; trend-aligned with soft near-term momentum → p_tp1 46, p_sl 32, p_expire 22.
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