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XAUTUSD short — 26 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on XAUTUSD entered at 4,287.6 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,287.9 with a price move of -0.00%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-26 16:08 |
| Entry | 4,287.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,315.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,268.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,256 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,287.9 |
| Realized P&L | -0.00% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Chop/low-vol transitional — MTF mixed but 5m/1h/4h EMA stacks bear_aligned, 1h ADX 11.0 (deep chop) slope +0.55 faint, ADX-20 8.4, choppiness 52.6 mid, ER-10 0.28/ER-30 0.25 nets nowhere, Hurst 0.34 mean-reverting, HMM calm full-conf; RV 24h at 17th pctile (very quiet). 2. LEAN CHECK: soft short lean — spot gold -0.26%/24h, macro gold +0.54%/1d but -2.34%/5d, net_move_4h -0.03%/12h -0.02%/24h -0.08% (flat-to-soft-down), price -2.02% from 5d-high and z-score -1.27 (below mean); but macro gold +0.54% today and 1h taker 1.19 buy-tilt push against a hard short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: EMA stacks bear_aligned on 3 of 4 TFs plus persistent 5d weakness (-2.34% macro gold) give a modest trend-aligned short, consistent with this asset's short-side edge in the track record. 4. PRE-MORTEM: macro gold +0.54%/1d intraday recovery plus rolling-z -1.27 (stretched-low, mean-revert risk) could snap price back up and stop the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4287.65, stop above recent structure at 4315.5 (~0.65%, ~0.9x RV of a quiet-vol gold session), target down at 4256.0 (~0.74%, RR ~1.14, inside clamps) toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: quiet vol + chop caps traversal, honest split with meaningful expire.
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