XRPUSD short — 24 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on XRPUSD entered at 1.0926 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1.0912 with a price move of +0.13%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | XRPUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-24 14:03 |
| Entry | 1.0926 |
| Stop-loss | 1.1075 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1.08 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1.0716 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.41 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1.0912 |
| Realized P&L | +0.13% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m EMA bear-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h still bull — mtf mixed/transitional; 1h ADX 30 rising (+2.0 slope), Hurst 0.49 neutral, choppiness 33 (trending), funding mildly positive — a bearish pullback rolling over within a decaying uptrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-1.33/-1.28/-1.60%), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -2.1, agg OI -5.1%, oi_change -5.1%), taker 0.79 sell-heavy — evidence leans short, matching the prior winning short in this same regime. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend on lower TFs is bear-aligned with momentum confirming (sustained negative net moves, sell-heavy taker, decelerating/declining OI on the way down = longs exiting), Fear index 28 and macro risk-off (SPX -1.2%, VIX up); this is a trend-aligned short on the active lower-TF trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m/1h RSI deeply oversold (23/28) plus 4h EMA still bull — a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming ~1.10 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1.0926; stop 1.1075 above the reclaim/prior-bounce zone (~1.36% risk, beyond oversold-bounce noise); TP 1.0716, the 5d-low retest region (~1.92% reward), R:R ~1.4. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold RSI raises bounce odds — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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