BTCUSD short — 24 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 64,126.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 64,213.5 with a price move of -0.14%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-24 13:48 |
| Entry | 64,126.5 |
| Stop-loss | 64,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,558.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 63,180 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.45 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 64,213.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.14% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4) — 5m/15m bear_aligned and oversold, 1h mixed, 4h still bull_aligned; ADX_1h 22 rising slightly, choppiness 37 (mildly trending), Hurst 0.45 (mean-reverting), calm HMM — a short-term bear pulse inside a still-intact 4h uptrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -1.5% 4h, -1.4% 12h, taker 0.77 sell-skewed, OI accelerating_down) so the tradeable lean is short, though 5m/15m RSI 22-29 flag oversold exhaustion risk. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh downside momentum — 5m/15m EMA bear-stacked with ADX 41, OI momentum accelerating_down (-0.58% recent half), taker buy/sell 0.77, agg 4h liq long-heavy (0.98) and SPX -1.2% / VIX up risk-off macro all lean short; price sits just above the 5d low (+0.34%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: deep oversold (15m RSI 21.7) at the 5d low invites a mean-reversion bounce, and top-traders remain net long (pos ratio 1.58) — a reclaim of ~64,600 would kill the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 64,126; stop above the reclaim/recent structure at 64,780 (~1.0% risk, beyond the invalidation); TP1 stretch at 63,180 breaking the 5d low toward next support (~1.48% reward, R:R ~1.45). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold at support caps it — p_tp1 42, p_sl 35, p_expire 23.
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