AAVEUSD long — 23 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 144.75 and stopped out at 139.6 after 3 hours, closing at -3.56%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Entry | 144.75 |
| Stop-loss | 139.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 148.14 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 150.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 139.6 |
| Realized P&L | -3.56% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 38.2 with positive slope +4.47 (strengthening), 4h ADX 52.2, choppiness 32.6 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.57 (clean path), HMM volatile 0.89 — a violent +15.1% 24h bull impulse pinned at the 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — HTF trend, OI acceleration and top-trader positioning all point up; no coherent short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is OI/flow acceleration (oi_momentum accelerating_up, oi_5m_z +1.75, agg_oi +28.2%, oi_change_recent_half +23.9%) confirming fresh money chasing the trend, backed by top_trader_pos_ratio 1.51 (leaders net long) and taker 1.04 — trend-aligned with a strengthening 1h ADX. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is extreme (4h 81.8, 1h 73.4) and price is +2.72 z-score / pinned at the high with rv_24h at 88th pctile — a mean-reversion flush that breaks the recent 4h higher-low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 144.75; stop below the recent structural pullback shelf at 138.9 (-4.04%, ~0.7x the 5.76% avg 24h traversal, beyond the invalidation); stretch TP 152.75 (+5.53%) clamped by the 4% rule to ~150.5 — place TP at 150.4 (+3.9%, RR ~0.97 vs the 5.85 stop... adjust) — set stop tighter at 139.6 (-3.56%) so TP 150.4 gives RR ~1.10. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but overbought/extended, meaningful chance of a stall; p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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