ETHUSD long — 23 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,469.4 and stopped out at 2,432.5 after 4.5 hours, closing at -1.50%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Entry | 2,469.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,432.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,495.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,513 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,432.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.50% |
| Time open | 4.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), but ADX_1h only 16.99 slope -0.46 (weak, fading) while 4h ADX towers at 55.7 — a strong higher-TF uptrend cooling into a lower-TF stall; ER-10 0.30 / ER-30 0.18 noisy, choppiness 51 mid, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm — bull structure with poor near-term efficiency near 5d highs (-2.1%). 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean — every EMA stack bull, OI building (oi_5m_z +2.1, agg_oi +2.79%), top-trader pos ratio 1.734 heavily long, ETF eth +2.47x velocity with $184M inflow. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full_bullish MTF plus fresh OI accumulation and strong top-trader long positioning, backed by macro tailwind (DXY soft, VIX -5.5%, gold +3.6% risk-on). 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h/5m RSI overbought (71.8/72.1) and oi_momentum decelerating + funding_momentum negative — a stall/reversal at the 5d high would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent structural swing / z-mean support at 2432.5 (~1.5% risk, within 24h ATR of ~3.8%); stretch TP at 2513 (~1.76% above entry, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps) targeting reclaim of the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought extension + fading 1h ADX tempers the win odds despite trend alignment.
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