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PAXGUSD short — 12 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,353.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,351.2 with a price move of +0.05%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-12 13:00 |
| Entry | 4,353.2 |
| Stop-loss | 4,383 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,333.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,321 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.08 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,351.2 |
| Realized P&L | +0.05% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned) but 1h ADX only 10.9 with slope -0.31, choppiness 55, ER-10 0.13 / ER-30 0.02 (path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm low-vol gold pullback in weak, non-trending drift. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — net_move_pct_24h -1.15%, gold spot -0.89% 24h, macro gold -2.79% 5d, EMA stack bear on every TF; but stretched down (rolling z -1.33, RSI oversold on 5m/15m, only +0.93% off 5d/20d/90d low). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack plus soft macro gold (DXY firm, gold -2.79% over 5d) supports continuation of the down-leg, and top-trader long ratio 2.44 is crowded-long fuel for further downside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +0.93% off its 90d low with RSI oversold and z -1.33 — a mean-reversion bounce back toward the 1h mean would invalidate; keep stop modest and target close. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above recent intraday structure at 4,383 (~0.68% above mark, ~0.5x rv-informed daily range for low-vol gold); target the 5d-low retest zone near 4,321 (~0.74% below mark) — reward:risk ~1.08, well inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: bear stack favors continuation but oversold/near-low caps follow-through in low vol; meaningful expire risk given ER near zero.
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