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AAVEUSD long — 14 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 129.4576 and stopped out at 126.82 after 5.6 hours, closing at -2.04%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 21:39 |
| Entry | 129.4576 |
| Stop-loss | 126.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.493 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 132.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 126.82 |
| Realized P&L | -2.04% |
| Time open | 5.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed (5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 18.1 with +5.48 rising slope, ADX-20 13.1, ER-10 0.37 / ER-30 0.21 / choppiness 34.2 / Hurst 0.25 — AAVE's classic mean-reverting chop but with a fresh up-thrust firming; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — net_move_4h +1.57% / 12h +1.82% / 24h +2.56% fresh upside, OI accelerating_up (5m z +1.83, 15m z +1.98), top-trader pos ratio 2.23 heavily long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI + positioning — OI accelerating_up with a genuine fresh up-leg while top-traders sit long 2.23x and account ratio 1.45; short-TF EMA stacks bull-aligned aligns the momentum; this exact setup has won repeatedly on AAVE (last same-regime long +2.68%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker_buy_sell 0.84 (sellers slightly dominant this hour) and price only -1.38% off the 5d high — a stall/rejection at the 5d high with 1h/4h EMAs still mixed would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 129.46; stop below the recent up-leg base / structural invalidation at 126.85 (~2.0% risk, within AAVE's ~5.2% avg daily range); stretch TP 132.85 (~2.6% up, R:R ~1.3, inside clamps) targeting a push through the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-with-thrust base rate — p_tp1 46, p_sl 37, p_expire 17.
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